used to be a somewhat better version of this saying current in Lincoln’s
There are certainly numerous earlier examples that approximate to the phrase - "a fib, a lie and statistics" (1891), "simple liars, damned liars and experts" (1885) etc. The phrase has also been
a relative of Mr. Buckle, that this remarkable writer was entirely
"Talked politics, scandal, and the three classes of witnesses - liars, d-d liars, and experts.âThe same idea was also current in the USA around the same date.
of this quotation has been found in any of Disraeli's published works or letters. wriggle out of.”
There are lies, there are
cultivation of rhubarb, whereupon Buckle immediately said: “The plant
another with a chuckle the words of the Wise Statesman,
288). remarkable, A friend of mine when in his company had occasion to refer to the
Below is a sample display of temperature data in an NWS Climate Report from February 14, 2012 at Chicago's O'Hare Airport.Climatology is extremely useful for weather forecasters because it gives an expectation (based on history) of types of weather that are typical at the location.
which, if he is not, as he probably is, acquainted with it, may be of interest
It was to the effect that there were three gradations of inveracity - there were lies, there were d-d lies, and there were statistics. country, but I believe there is a general recognition of it elsewhere. there are statistics which do not belong to that class? It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of
In “The Whole Duty of a Chemist,” an unsigned article in response
positive of it. Wentworth Dilke (18431911) in the same year (see Dilke below).
school, and was left to learn little or much as he liked. F.W.G.
DEGREES OF FALSEHOOD (7th S. xii. Statisticians can afford to laugh
Upon completion of this page, you should be able to describe and interpret simple statistical measures of weather and climate information.
[ 1896] reminded him of
So for young players, if you see it, don't repeat it. Temperance Problem: Past and Future’,
The probability of rain doesn't tell us anything about how A 40 percent chance of rain tomorrow means there's a four in ten chance that any point (your backyard, perhaps) in a forecast area will receive at least 0.01 inches of rain tomorrow. - Mark Twain's Own Autobiography: The Chapters from the North American Review falsehood: the first is a ‘fib,’ the second is a downright lie,
said by some wits that that there are three degrees of unveracity:
It has been
also see below), and a very similar phrase is attributed to Sir Charles
facts are facts, and although we may quote one to another with a chuckle the words be in good time for the society’s meeting at eight; and a minute of
the study would still be indispensible. “Lies, dd lies, and statistics.” The science has a good many
Alternatively, if the same forecast scenario occurred ten times, at least 0.01 inches of rain would fall on four days at any point in the forecast area, and no measurable rain would fall in the forecast area the other six days.Some statistics that meteorologists use are a little more straightforward than probability of precipitation. It takes more extreme weather events to break records at locations that have a period of record 100 years or longer, such as the Blue Hill Meteorological Observatory (pictured on the right) in Milton, Massachusetts.
So, Note that in Chicago's climate report above, the 30-year means ("NORMAL VALUE") came from weather observations taken Still, normal temperatures are useful for meteorologists because on most days, temperatures don't deviate all that much from normal. beguile me, particularly when I have the arranging of them myself; in which
Who was it who said,
There are liars, there are outrageous liars, and there are scientific
According to The Phrase Finder, the earliest known citation of the expression in close to its current form is by Arthur James Balfour, 1st Earl of Balfour, as quoted in the Manchester Guardian, 29th June 1892: "there are three kinds of falsehoods, lies, damned lies and statistics." them, represent his own ordinary style.”
J A Baines, Parliamentary representation in England illustrated by the
of the Wise Statesman, "Lies - damn lies - and statistics," still there
and I have heard those persons say, who were competent to judge, that Mr.
Even the anti-vaccinationists, for instance, by searching the inspiring tables
Springs,’
Such large departures from normal are possible, but they may only occur a few times each year.Furthermore, if you hear about a record high (or low) temperature being broken, it's always worth asking "what's the period of record?"