Because you’re no electrician, what do you do? I am just trying to determine what that is.Or not. Don’t all great thinkers stand on one anothers’ shoulders? But is even that coincidence? Neat. The purpose of gymnastics? We each find someone that we find reasonably attractive and reasonably tolerable and we give it our best shot. As a Yiddish saying goes: “If I must eat pork, it had better be the best kind.” The same goes for randomness. This doesn’t mean that no luck whatsoever is involved, but it does seem that Taleb proves too much in his simplified illustration.
With every dollar into your retirement plan, you get closer to being able to retire with the same lifestyle, and so on.Taleb says the reason life is non-linear is that some outcomes are It’s hard for us to see these tipping points in advance, so However, at one point, a single office ordered Windows for its computers and suddenly, more than half of all offices were using it. )And if there is only coincidence, then what of bad luck? Nassim Nicholas Taleb shatters the theory that hard work, alone, will guarantee you fame and fortune. What of hope?I attended a wedding reception once where the father of the groom stood, as if to make a toast, and declared:“I don’t believe in ‘the one.’ That each of us has one perfect person out there, waiting for us to become one perfect whole. Been lucky beyond the bounds of chaos? Are there such things as pure flukes? As they say, in the abundance of water the fool is thirsty.You seem to have missed the purpose of your own post, which is that people who use words like “pithy” (looking at you) have no business on the Internet. Once you run out of gymnasts, who goes on the Wheaties boxes?Pearls before swine, and all of that. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that deals with the fallibility of human knowledge. He goes a bit off tangents sometimes making the book more like a personal diary than a well-designed product to support his core messages.It’s a pity because those core messages are really important and insightful.Fooled by Randomess can be a complex book to digest.But it didn’t necessarily had to be so: simplifying is a choice (and a skill).Taleb’s own dissertations and, ironically, his huge culture, get in the way of a simple message.This doesn’t have to be a negative though, I for one love those bigger picture (or fun) references and tangents.He is not afraid of telling it how it is even when he touches big names (Bill Gates, Soros and Warren Buffet just to name a few).It’s not just great prose though, “Fooled by Randomness” provides readers with important tools and concepts to understand the world.I used to reflect on the underestimated role of randomness for example and I’m glad for Taleb’s work which I can now refer to.Finally, I really enjoyed Taleb also says randomness cannot affect your behavior.the success he’s had is because of going around his emotions instead of rationalizing themmild success is skills while wild success is variance and randomnessYou only look at decisions in light of the information you had up until that pointwe don’t live in a world where things move continuously towards improvementbut an external observer will easily misconstrue the results for skills There are a lot more components than the wheel and ball of the roulette machine. The title Fooled by Randomness refers to our tendency to mistake luck for skills and to our misguided conviction that access to more information means higher success ration. But when people talk about other things, they get very confused about what they’re actually talking and thinking about… This is the crime machine. (Why do we feel compelled to sight great wisdom parenthetically? “ Fooled by Randomness ” is one of those books, which concisely illustrate the point of success.
Not that anything more certain can be known, not for sure, but I prefer to believe in something higher and be wrong than believe in nothing and be right. We can see the success probability diminish from 93% down to 50% at a one-second resolution.To make it clearer we can calculate the density of each distribution and plot it: He also paints a vivid picture of what happens to people who don’t. From one day to the next, non-Windows users were in the minority. Randomness, chance, and luck influence our lives and our work more than we realize. And I could not tell for certain whether he said it with contempt or resignation. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. The book is the first part of Taleb's multi-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled the Incerto, which also includes The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010–2016), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018).
He said it authoritatively, as though he had pulled it from some indisputable treatise, that no one could question. Everything has a purpose, even gymnastics.